Posts
A tired old investment saying goes "The markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent" Now I don't know who originally said this and to be frank, I'm a little tired of hearing it. But just like most old quotes this one proves itself correct time and again. A whole bunch of people have hit the solvency wall during this commodities correction. For those new to investing, I will explain;
Many if not most traders employ the use of margin, or credit when they trade. In other words, they borrow against their existing shares and use that money to purchase more shares. This is just one way they leverage their capital to get more exposure to a market. Margin is a legitimate tool when used correctly but it also carries with it increased risk. That risk is that the shares that you borrowed against or that your broker used as collateral for the money it loaned you, might decrease in value. If that happens the broker can issue a "Margin Call" this means that you must either;
1. Deposit more money into your brokerage account.
2. Pay back enough of the borrowed money by selling enough shares to bring your margin balance back into line.
Or
3. Do nothing and let your broker liquidate your holdings so they get their money back.
(obviously none of these are pleasant.)
This is what happened to many people in this last commodity correction. Because it was so deep and swift, it caught many by surprise and wiped out much of their previous gains.
If you are not borrowing against your shares, you are not forced to sell them when their value drops and you can just sit tight and weather the storm or if you believe that the stock itself is going down much farther you can sell on a bounce instead of the dip. Margin Calls force you to sell at the worst possible times.
And that is what validates the tired old saying.
But is the market acting irrationally? I believe that it is. Let me provide the following evidence;
The dollar has given up on it's attempted rally. Gold and the dollar have an inverse relationship and while gold is reflecting the dollars' decline, Silver is not.
The spot price of silver, as a percentage, has plummeted nearly twice that of gold.
This in the face of real physical silver supply shortages.
Some analysts say that the current spot price doesn't even pay for the cost of production(mining).
Bullion prices are 20 to 30% over the spot price. That is the premium you will pay to a dealer over the spot price, to purchase their silver, if they have any.
While above ground supply of silver is one fifth that of gold, it takes over sixty times the amount of silver to equal one of gold.
Gold's industrial uses are negligible while silver's industrial use is huge, irreplaceable in many cases and growing rapidly not withstanding reduction in photographic use.
For the last 60 years we have been using more silver than we mine, so much so, that most of the stock piles are gone forever.
The US Mint Silver Eagle sales have sky rocketed to the extent that they are rationing to their dealers. (supply doesn't meet demand for whatever reason).
So with all these factors in mind, if you are still solvent, one might conclude that Silver might not be a bad place to park your cash at a time when some of our largest banking institutions are folding like a bunch of soft tacos and the US government is increasing monetary supply(printing dollars electronically) at an exponential pace.
Or maybe it's just me.
JT
Legal disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and is solely the opinion of the writer. Nothing in this post should be considered investment advice. Before investing in anything, the reader is encouraged to do his or her own research and consult with a certified financial advisor. Which John Tompkins makes no claim to be. John Tompkins and Toro Creek Investments accept no liability for financial losses or damages incurred by the reader because of this post.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
What Is Going On?
I knew this would be an interesting month, but this is epic.What is happening here is similar to the Cuban missile crisis, in that we don't know how close we are to financial Armageddon. And we won't know, at least until history tells the whole tale.
Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, AIG Wow!
I am not a doomsday kind of guy, however, this is serious. The amount of money involved in this meltdown is so large, that nobody can comprehend it. If you win a million in the lottery, well, that's a number we can grasp.
What about a thousand million? That's a billion. Now that is an interesting number. At 5% interest, that's what? 50 million a year in interest payments. What about a trillion? you guessed it 50 billion! This banking crisis will be counted in the trillions before all is said and done.
They (the Government) are already throwing around numbers like 200 billion, 85 billion, even a trillion. Now this would be fine if we were running surpluses in the Federal budget, but, , , we have a massive deficit and massive debt. In other words, the money just doesn't exist.
So what is the Government handing out in all these bailouts?
Freshly printed checks. Checks written on an account that has a massive negative balance.
Now all of this will probably work out just fine. This is still the greatest country in the world and offers the best environment for capitalism and opportunity. Is it perfect? Of course not. Can it collapse financially? Who knows. History tells us that no currency in 4000 years of monetary history has ever survived after it has been debased. We've been slowly doing that for a long time now.
So what does all this mean to me?
I'm going to apply straight common sense.
No body knows where the banking and financial markets are going, but it doesn't look good.
Commodities have been hammered recently in the markets. And are now, in my opinion, on sale.
I'm exchanging those Government checks for something solid.
Gold and Silver are solid and they are on sale!
But not for long.
JT
Legal disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and is solely the opinion of the writer. Nothing in this post should be considered investment advice. Before investing in anything, the reader is encouraged to do his or her own research and consult with a certified financial advisor. Which John Tompkins makes no claim to be. John Tompkins and Toro Creek Investments accept no liability for financial losses or damages incurred by the reader because of this post.
Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, AIG Wow!
I am not a doomsday kind of guy, however, this is serious. The amount of money involved in this meltdown is so large, that nobody can comprehend it. If you win a million in the lottery, well, that's a number we can grasp.
What about a thousand million? That's a billion. Now that is an interesting number. At 5% interest, that's what? 50 million a year in interest payments. What about a trillion? you guessed it 50 billion! This banking crisis will be counted in the trillions before all is said and done.
They (the Government) are already throwing around numbers like 200 billion, 85 billion, even a trillion. Now this would be fine if we were running surpluses in the Federal budget, but, , , we have a massive deficit and massive debt. In other words, the money just doesn't exist.
So what is the Government handing out in all these bailouts?
Freshly printed checks. Checks written on an account that has a massive negative balance.
Now all of this will probably work out just fine. This is still the greatest country in the world and offers the best environment for capitalism and opportunity. Is it perfect? Of course not. Can it collapse financially? Who knows. History tells us that no currency in 4000 years of monetary history has ever survived after it has been debased. We've been slowly doing that for a long time now.
So what does all this mean to me?
I'm going to apply straight common sense.
No body knows where the banking and financial markets are going, but it doesn't look good.
Commodities have been hammered recently in the markets. And are now, in my opinion, on sale.
I'm exchanging those Government checks for something solid.
Gold and Silver are solid and they are on sale!
But not for long.
JT
Legal disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and is solely the opinion of the writer. Nothing in this post should be considered investment advice. Before investing in anything, the reader is encouraged to do his or her own research and consult with a certified financial advisor. Which John Tompkins makes no claim to be. John Tompkins and Toro Creek Investments accept no liability for financial losses or damages incurred by the reader because of this post.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Covered Calls
What are covered calls?
Options contracts.
But first things first, what is a call option?
There are two basic categories of options, Calls and Puts. For now we are only concerned with Calls.
If you believe that a stock(or virtually any other traded asset) is going to rise in value in the future, you can enter into a contract with another person or entity, that will guarantee that you have the right, but not the obligation, to purchase that asset at a preset price any time on or before a preset date. But to secure that deal you have to pay a premium.
Lets see an actual example:
CHK is the ticker symbol for Chesapeake Energy Corp.
Today is September 7th 2008
Chk's price is $44.34
If you believe that CHK will increase in price to 60 dollars within the next 3 months.
you can buy an Call Option with a target price(strike) of 45 dollars that expires on the third Friday of January 2009.
This contract will cost you $580.
So what does all this mean?
If the price takes off and climbs up to, lets say $55 a share in two weeks, you can then opt to purchase shares of CHK for $45 dollars a share. How many shares? Each contract is for 100 shares. Or in this case $4500.
Wow! Buy 100 shares of a $55 stock for $45 a piece? A thousand dollar discount? whoo hoo! sign me up!
If you wanted to take an immediate profit you could then take those shares and sell them in the open market for the going rate of $55 per share or $5500 for a profit of $420 (Remember that the contract cost $580 in the first place). And don't forget commissions and exercise fees.
Or, you could just sell the contract itself.
That is generally what most traders do.
Well what's the contract worth now?
It isn't possible to know exactly to the penny but a pretty close estimate is around $1170, that works out to a profit of $590! That is before commissions and there are no exercise fees.
Much better huh?
So why not rush out and do just that?
Odds.
The odds are that over 90% of the time this contract will expire worthless because CHK will probably not rise that much in the specified time frame.
And that 90% applies to all option contracts! In other words most options buyers guess wrong.
So logically you would ask why not be on the other side of that trade?
Now that's a good question.
And the answer is that there is no good reason you can't.
IF, you do it carefully.
And there is a very safe way you can do it. And there is a way that practically guarantees profit.
Check this out;
First you buy 100 shares of CHK at the market price of $44.34, or $4434.00.
Then you sell (write) 1 call option contract.
This is called a covered call.
But what does it mean?
First you pick a price that you would be willing to sell your 100 shares. lets not get greedy how about 50 bucks a share? That's a nice $566 profit. and let's make the expiration time short, say 40 days, so we don't have to wait a long time to spend our money.
What money?
A 50 October call will cost the buyer $155. As the writer(seller) of the contract, you get that premium deposited in your account! and here's the best part, if the price of CHK doesn't hit $50 in the next 40 days you get to keep it and your 100 shares!
So what if it does hit $50?
You still keep the $155 dollars but you must sell your 100 shares at $50 per share, which is what you wanted to do in the first place. Only now your profit is not $566, it's $721 because of the premium you received for the contract. And that effectively lowers your initial purchase price to $42.79 per share which helps insure your initial investment if the price of CHK drops. You've got a built-in $1.55 cushion. And you can do it again every 40 days or sooner, or later. You pick the price and the time frame. But each time you do it you essentially lower your initial cost for the stock. Do it enough times and you can totally pay for the stock and get 100 shares of CHK for free!
So what are the drawbacks?
There really aren't any unless your tax situation is such that making a profit within the time frame puts you in a higher tax bracket or some other tax reason. But this is so rare that it hardly warrants mention. The only other risk here is the same as owning any stock. It can always fall in price. But as I pointed out, this trade only adds protection to the downside. You should only do this trade on a stock you want to own anyway.
OK, disclaimer and full disclosure time. Although I have, in the past, owned Chesapeake Energy Corp. I do not currently. I may in the future. Because I like the company. I am not recommending, for or against, any of the trade examples listed above. These examples are real world and current as of the time of this posting. The only thing I left out is the costs of commissions and fees, and that was strictly because it would have muddied up the water. Those costs must be accounted for in any trade you make. Furthermore, most of the online brokers offer training and learning centers that will go over Covered Call writing and you can always call your broker with questions, that is what you pay them for. If they don't or won't help you, find a new broker. I encourage you to research this strategy for yourself and understand it completely before you make this trade.
In closing this post I would encourage you to employ the power of covered call writing. It will bring in consistent income and add downside protection to your portfolio. If you change your mind and want to keep your 100 shares you can always buy back your own contract and by doing so, close out your contract. Depending on what the price of the underlying equity(the 100 shares of whatever) is doing, it may cost you more or less than the initial premium that you received. But I would recommend against doing this in most cases. Buying back your own contract is part of a good long term strategy but don't do it just because you think that you'll miss out on future higher returns. One in the hand vs. two in the bush and all that stuff. This strategy encourages you to take profits and keeps the gambling bug from stealing your profits. It is a great way to enforce self discipline. And if you've read my stuff in the past you'll remember that I believe that investor psychology is the biggest hurdle any investor faces. This Helps conquer that beast.
JT
Legal disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and is solely the opinion of the writer. Nothing in this post should be considered investment advice. Before investing in anything, the reader is encouraged to do his or her own research and consult with a certified financial advisor. Which John Tompkins makes no claim to be. John Tompkins and Toro Creek Investments accept no liability for financial losses or damages incurred by the reader because of this post.
Options contracts.
But first things first, what is a call option?
There are two basic categories of options, Calls and Puts. For now we are only concerned with Calls.
If you believe that a stock(or virtually any other traded asset) is going to rise in value in the future, you can enter into a contract with another person or entity, that will guarantee that you have the right, but not the obligation, to purchase that asset at a preset price any time on or before a preset date. But to secure that deal you have to pay a premium.
Lets see an actual example:
CHK is the ticker symbol for Chesapeake Energy Corp.
Today is September 7th 2008
Chk's price is $44.34
If you believe that CHK will increase in price to 60 dollars within the next 3 months.
you can buy an Call Option with a target price(strike) of 45 dollars that expires on the third Friday of January 2009.
This contract will cost you $580.
So what does all this mean?
If the price takes off and climbs up to, lets say $55 a share in two weeks, you can then opt to purchase shares of CHK for $45 dollars a share. How many shares? Each contract is for 100 shares. Or in this case $4500.
Wow! Buy 100 shares of a $55 stock for $45 a piece? A thousand dollar discount? whoo hoo! sign me up!
If you wanted to take an immediate profit you could then take those shares and sell them in the open market for the going rate of $55 per share or $5500 for a profit of $420 (Remember that the contract cost $580 in the first place). And don't forget commissions and exercise fees.
Or, you could just sell the contract itself.
That is generally what most traders do.
Well what's the contract worth now?
It isn't possible to know exactly to the penny but a pretty close estimate is around $1170, that works out to a profit of $590! That is before commissions and there are no exercise fees.
Much better huh?
So why not rush out and do just that?
Odds.
The odds are that over 90% of the time this contract will expire worthless because CHK will probably not rise that much in the specified time frame.
And that 90% applies to all option contracts! In other words most options buyers guess wrong.
So logically you would ask why not be on the other side of that trade?
Now that's a good question.
And the answer is that there is no good reason you can't.
IF, you do it carefully.
And there is a very safe way you can do it. And there is a way that practically guarantees profit.
Check this out;
First you buy 100 shares of CHK at the market price of $44.34, or $4434.00.
Then you sell (write) 1 call option contract.
This is called a covered call.
But what does it mean?
First you pick a price that you would be willing to sell your 100 shares. lets not get greedy how about 50 bucks a share? That's a nice $566 profit. and let's make the expiration time short, say 40 days, so we don't have to wait a long time to spend our money.
What money?
A 50 October call will cost the buyer $155. As the writer(seller) of the contract, you get that premium deposited in your account! and here's the best part, if the price of CHK doesn't hit $50 in the next 40 days you get to keep it and your 100 shares!
So what if it does hit $50?
You still keep the $155 dollars but you must sell your 100 shares at $50 per share, which is what you wanted to do in the first place. Only now your profit is not $566, it's $721 because of the premium you received for the contract. And that effectively lowers your initial purchase price to $42.79 per share which helps insure your initial investment if the price of CHK drops. You've got a built-in $1.55 cushion. And you can do it again every 40 days or sooner, or later. You pick the price and the time frame. But each time you do it you essentially lower your initial cost for the stock. Do it enough times and you can totally pay for the stock and get 100 shares of CHK for free!
So what are the drawbacks?
There really aren't any unless your tax situation is such that making a profit within the time frame puts you in a higher tax bracket or some other tax reason. But this is so rare that it hardly warrants mention. The only other risk here is the same as owning any stock. It can always fall in price. But as I pointed out, this trade only adds protection to the downside. You should only do this trade on a stock you want to own anyway.
OK, disclaimer and full disclosure time. Although I have, in the past, owned Chesapeake Energy Corp. I do not currently. I may in the future. Because I like the company. I am not recommending, for or against, any of the trade examples listed above. These examples are real world and current as of the time of this posting. The only thing I left out is the costs of commissions and fees, and that was strictly because it would have muddied up the water. Those costs must be accounted for in any trade you make. Furthermore, most of the online brokers offer training and learning centers that will go over Covered Call writing and you can always call your broker with questions, that is what you pay them for. If they don't or won't help you, find a new broker. I encourage you to research this strategy for yourself and understand it completely before you make this trade.
In closing this post I would encourage you to employ the power of covered call writing. It will bring in consistent income and add downside protection to your portfolio. If you change your mind and want to keep your 100 shares you can always buy back your own contract and by doing so, close out your contract. Depending on what the price of the underlying equity(the 100 shares of whatever) is doing, it may cost you more or less than the initial premium that you received. But I would recommend against doing this in most cases. Buying back your own contract is part of a good long term strategy but don't do it just because you think that you'll miss out on future higher returns. One in the hand vs. two in the bush and all that stuff. This strategy encourages you to take profits and keeps the gambling bug from stealing your profits. It is a great way to enforce self discipline. And if you've read my stuff in the past you'll remember that I believe that investor psychology is the biggest hurdle any investor faces. This Helps conquer that beast.
JT
Legal disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and is solely the opinion of the writer. Nothing in this post should be considered investment advice. Before investing in anything, the reader is encouraged to do his or her own research and consult with a certified financial advisor. Which John Tompkins makes no claim to be. John Tompkins and Toro Creek Investments accept no liability for financial losses or damages incurred by the reader because of this post.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Okay, so what's up with options?
Options? OK, here we go.
Everyone is afraid of options and futures. First things first. Options and futures are not the same thing, but unfortunately people lump them together quite often. And as such, they think that both are very risky. This is absolutely false. For me Options are a way to reduce or eliminate risk and maximise profit.
However for certain people options can be as dangerous as a Vegas casino. So , , , if you've got the gambling bug , , , please please, don't read any further because you are the people that options traders prey on. And I do mean to use the term "prey".
I have a love for trading and for capitalism and for freedom and especially for America. There will always be people that abuse their freedoms. But that is at the heart of freedom isn't it? That is part of the cost of freedom, among other more consequential things. But in this country we have a right to waste our money by making risky and stupid speculations. If you want to waste yours, then jump right into options and futures without taking the time to educate yourself. Conversely we also have the right to educate ourselves and take advantage of opportunity. That, is precisely what options provide, opportunity. With the caveat of self education firmly in place, I can honestly say that Options are much less risky than most other investments. So what are Options?
(As I am writing this I am listening to Martin Sexton; Black sheep, and understanding that if I keep on with my explanations this might be part I of II)( But I will attempt to shorten it).
The Purpose of options is insurance. Plain and simple, nuthin' more nuthin' less.
This insurance allows entrepreneurs to hedge their positions, take on and manage risk, invest capital with less downside risk, expand into new markets with relative impunity, protect themselves from unexpected market conditions, natural and man made, etc.
Without getting into too much detail, here is an actual legitimate, capitalistic use of options and futures. This actually happened recently and the trader that did this had his or her 5 minutes of fame.
Southwest Airlines had forecast higher energy prices (fuel prices) and entered into a trade that guaranteed that they could buy fuel at a set level. No matter what fuel prices rose to. They guessed right!
This was a smart trade, but to guarantee that price, they had to pay a premium.
In essence they said, "I'll pay you a fee, if you guarantee to deliver fuel to my airlines at today's prices, if, and only if the price rises on or before a set, future date. If the price doesn't rise in that time frame, you keep the fee and the contract expires.
That Is a contract, No?
Yes it is.
It is an option contract.
But what if prices fall?
This happens every day with Corn, Cattle, Pork, Cotton, Wheat, etc. It is what makes your food, clothes, auto parts, lumber, etc. so cheap and readily available.
Not so evil, the speculators? Huh?
One other feature of options;
Lets say a wing crack develops in one airplane (purely hypothetical) and the FAA decides to come in and ground all of Southwests' airplanes, for inspection. They no longer need the fuel in question, right? So what happens to the contract? Remember the clock is ticking and the speculator is only responsible to payoff "on or Before" the set date. That contract premium is becoming less valuable, in time value, every day. The genius of options is that you can sell the contract, it's transferable to another party! They have the right to sell that contract to someone who does need that fuel. Now that the contract is"in the money" (meaning that oil prices have already increased within the specified time frame), that premium would rise accordingly due to it's "intrinsic" value(the dollar value of getting cheap fuel) even though the time value is dwindling daily
So this is essentially the purpose of Options, but how do you and I trade them? The safest, easiest and most important way to do this through the use of covered calls. And this is the topic for my very next blog, see you then.
JT
Everyone is afraid of options and futures. First things first. Options and futures are not the same thing, but unfortunately people lump them together quite often. And as such, they think that both are very risky. This is absolutely false. For me Options are a way to reduce or eliminate risk and maximise profit.
However for certain people options can be as dangerous as a Vegas casino. So , , , if you've got the gambling bug , , , please please, don't read any further because you are the people that options traders prey on. And I do mean to use the term "prey".
I have a love for trading and for capitalism and for freedom and especially for America. There will always be people that abuse their freedoms. But that is at the heart of freedom isn't it? That is part of the cost of freedom, among other more consequential things. But in this country we have a right to waste our money by making risky and stupid speculations. If you want to waste yours, then jump right into options and futures without taking the time to educate yourself. Conversely we also have the right to educate ourselves and take advantage of opportunity. That, is precisely what options provide, opportunity. With the caveat of self education firmly in place, I can honestly say that Options are much less risky than most other investments. So what are Options?
(As I am writing this I am listening to Martin Sexton; Black sheep, and understanding that if I keep on with my explanations this might be part I of II)( But I will attempt to shorten it).
The Purpose of options is insurance. Plain and simple, nuthin' more nuthin' less.
This insurance allows entrepreneurs to hedge their positions, take on and manage risk, invest capital with less downside risk, expand into new markets with relative impunity, protect themselves from unexpected market conditions, natural and man made, etc.
Without getting into too much detail, here is an actual legitimate, capitalistic use of options and futures. This actually happened recently and the trader that did this had his or her 5 minutes of fame.
Southwest Airlines had forecast higher energy prices (fuel prices) and entered into a trade that guaranteed that they could buy fuel at a set level. No matter what fuel prices rose to. They guessed right!
This was a smart trade, but to guarantee that price, they had to pay a premium.
In essence they said, "I'll pay you a fee, if you guarantee to deliver fuel to my airlines at today's prices, if, and only if the price rises on or before a set, future date. If the price doesn't rise in that time frame, you keep the fee and the contract expires.
That Is a contract, No?
Yes it is.
It is an option contract.
But what if prices fall?
Had prices gone the other way, they would have given up the premium and just paid the lower fuel prices in the market, and then explained to the boss that the insurance policy had expired and it was time to renew it with another further dated policy(option).
Would the boss be angry about the loss of the premium? Probably not. Are you angry when you don't get into a traffic accident and don't "get" to use your auto insurance? Of course not, this was a legitimate business expense and a correct and prudent use of Options
On the other side of that trade was a legitimate speculator willing to take the risk that oil had peaked and wouldn't go higher. Guess what? They lost! Big time! They were buying oil at $140 to provide Southwest oil at a ridiculously low price. OUCH! There are, of course, many more details that went along with this trade and it is far more intricate than this simple explanation. The point is in the legitimacy and necessity of Options, the people that use them and the speculators that provide them.This happens every day with Corn, Cattle, Pork, Cotton, Wheat, etc. It is what makes your food, clothes, auto parts, lumber, etc. so cheap and readily available.
Not so evil, the speculators? Huh?
One other feature of options;
Lets say a wing crack develops in one airplane (purely hypothetical) and the FAA decides to come in and ground all of Southwests' airplanes, for inspection. They no longer need the fuel in question, right? So what happens to the contract? Remember the clock is ticking and the speculator is only responsible to payoff "on or Before" the set date. That contract premium is becoming less valuable, in time value, every day. The genius of options is that you can sell the contract, it's transferable to another party! They have the right to sell that contract to someone who does need that fuel. Now that the contract is"in the money" (meaning that oil prices have already increased within the specified time frame), that premium would rise accordingly due to it's "intrinsic" value(the dollar value of getting cheap fuel) even though the time value is dwindling daily
So this is essentially the purpose of Options, but how do you and I trade them? The safest, easiest and most important way to do this through the use of covered calls. And this is the topic for my very next blog, see you then.
JT
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