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Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Last Chance?

It's always dangerous calling tops and bottoms. So I won't.





OK maybe I will.




I am already on record saying that silver will rise. I have already said that I don't know exactly when.

But what do I really think? you might ask.

I suspect that it will be soon, possibly within the next three or four months. Indeed I would not be surprised if, upon finishing this post, I discovered that the next major upswing in the price had begun.


So why do I believe this? After all I'll be the first to admit that I was completely surprised by the intensity and depth of this pull back (some would call it a price collapse).


The reasons for my confidence are many but here are a few. First is Ted Butlers commentary on the COT structure. I'm no expert on the Commitment Of Traders report and I wouldn't even attempt to explain it to you( I'll leave that to the experts). But it is Mr Butlers opinion that the Big Money is setting itself up to make a killing and he presents a pretty powerful case. His analysis is followed by the analysis of many of the most respected people in the metals market.

I have seen more and more of the experts that I follow, convinced of the very timing I'm sharing with you. Then there is the list of spectacular fundamentals that I've been writing about for some time now. Another piece of the puzzle that has been coming together lately is that the fundamentalists and the chartists are beginning to agree with each other. In fact my own conclusions, after analyzing a multitude of charts, Elliot waves and oversold levels, couldn't be more bullish.

My timing could be off, but if I'm wrong, I have the company of people that are smarter than I and I also have the confidence that, being wrong on the timing really doesn't matter because Silver is such a wonderful buy at these levels, it simply prolongs the buying opportunity.




Could I be wrong about Silver? Of course. There are no guarantees in the market place. The markets are going to do what they do. All we can do is analyze as best we can, make sure we haven't missed anything and have the courage to execute our plans. History will tell the whole story in due time. But I'm OK with that, it's what makes this such an exciting business.


But what if I'm wrong? These markets have been pretty screwy.


I have back up plans and trading discipline to fall back on.


But what if that doesn't work? Everything could fall apart.


If that doesn't work folks, the only thing that is going to help is guns, ammo, food, water, shelter and faith.


I've already gone over that check list and I got 'em covered.






As always


Good Luck and Godspeed





JT

Legal disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and is solely the opinion of the writer. Nothing in this post should be considered investment advice. Before investing in anything, the reader is encouraged to do his or her own research and consult with a certified financial advisor, which John Tompkins makes no claim to be. John Tompkins and Toro Creek Investments accept no liability for financial losses or damages incurred by the reader because of this post.

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