Just The Facts Ma'am

For those of you too young to remember, the title is a quote from a TV series named Dragnet, starring Jack Webb. Webb as Sargent Joe Friday delivers this line as an admonishment to an emotional rant from a crime witness. In other words, stop with the hysteria and give me the straight poop.
I strive to be as positive and constructive as possible. Sometimes I fail. Sometimes I am driven to failure by people who are determined to pee in my Cheerios. Some of the things that I unearth in researching investment opportunities have that same effect on me.
That having been said, in an effort to avoid tainting your breakfast cereal, don't read this if you want someone to blow sunshine up your butt.
Here's the link for those of you who can handle the graphic image and to follow along at home; http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Warning; this stuff is scary.
So here goes, Just The Facts;
National debt, 11.3 Trillion and rising
US Spending year to date, 1.68 Trillion and rising
Tax revenue, 974 billion and rising
Budget deficit 749 billion and rising
Here is the impact on you;
Debt per citizen, $36,920.00
US Govt. spending per citizen, YTD, $5,387.00
Private debt, 6.97 Trillion
Private debt per citizen $22,862.00
US Unfunded liabilities (what we are committed to pay for Medicare, Prescription drugs and Social Security) 57 Trillion
Liability per citizen, $188,406.00
So if we add up US Government debt per person, private debt per person, and unfunded liability per person, we come up with, $248,188.00.
Just the facts.
These are the numbers, as of Today.
If we stop right now.
Now for my personal opinion;
We won't stop now. Washington is just beginning to ramp up the spending.
Please understand that these numbers reflect a trend that is relatively new in this country. 30 years new.
It is not, however, new in historical terms. It has happened over and over again throughout history and every time it happens, countries, governments and civilizations fall.
So just because we have seen deficit spending and increasing national debt for most of our lives, please don't for a moment, think that this is sustainable, it is not.
The question is, which generation will pay our debts?
Even if we wanted to pass the buck down the road to our kids or grand kids (which I believe to be despicable and morally bankrupt), I seriously doubt that the "buck" will last that long.
I used to think we could stop this and reverse the trend, but I no longer believe that we have the ability, collective societal education or self discipline.
So where does that leave us?
With the absolute need to remain positive.
I realise after my dire predictions that sounds ludicrous, but it is not. Being prepared is positive. Being proactive is positive, looking to not only survive, but to thrive is positive. With every crisis comes opportunity. And while we may wish that we could avoid the pain in the future, we can be confident in our ability to turn adversity into advantage.
Be ready and stay financially nimble.

Good Luck and Godspeed

JT

Update

Well, since the various schools around the country are starting to wind down for the summer break, I thought it would be a good time to evaluate my performance on a few picks.
Here are my grades;
Gold A+
I have been championing gold personally and publicly for more than 8 years and I'm still an advocate. In fact more today than ever before. I'm up over 400 percent on this one.
Hold, Buy below $800

Silver A
While I am more bullish on silver than ever, it has taken more abuse than gold in recent pull backs. That having been said I think this grade will be A++ before all is said and done. I'm up 100% here.
Strong Buy/Accumulate. Buy below $16.50

Dow Chemicals (DOW) F-
Wow did I ever screw up on this pick, I caught the falling knife, blade first on this one. I would have been fine had I set my stop 50 cents lower. I was looking for support at $8.50 and it broke down below that, triggering the sale and then, it proceeded to rally to over 16 bucks a share, which is what I paid for it. Oops! That's proof that I make mistakes too. I took a fifty percent haircut on this one. This also demonstrates the importance of position sizing.
Position closed

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) C-, D+
Down 10%
Hold

Van Eck Global Market Vectors Coal (KOL) A
Up %19
Accumulate

Market Vectors Agri-business (MOO) A
UP %27
Accumulate

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) A
Up %5 in 2 months
Accumulate

ProShares UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries (TBT) A
Up %22 in 5 months
Accumulate

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) C
Unchanged
Buy

Not too bad all things considered.

This is not my whole portfolio. This list, just represents what I have been writing about in this blog. I have many other positions in resource and junior resource companies that I have been accumulating for quite some time. Since I am in the accumulate mode in this sector, the radical pull back that wiped out so much value for so many people, allowed me to add to those positions at bargain basement prices. This is the speculative portion of my portfolio and I would not recommend these stocks as investment vehicles for any one, other than a seasoned trader.
The ones listed here, however, should continue to perform going forward, beware of a pull back this month, as I wrote about in my last post. This may or may not happen, if it does, I plan on using it as an opportunity to expand the positions in my "accumulate" rated stocks.
As for my percentages on gold and silver, they represent a much larger time span and they predate this blog. For instance silver; I acquired some shares or ounces at around 4 bucks, some at 5,6,10, 11, 17, 18, 14 and 12. The %100 gain is from the average cost of my holdings. Which works out to about 7 bucks an oz. The thing to be observed here is that you can afford to mistime the market if you are always buying on pullbacks in a cyclical bull market. That is how to "accumulate" a position. The trick is in knowing when it turns from a bull to a bear. We ain't there yet but it'll be dramatic right before it turns.

Good Luck and Godspeed

JT

Legal disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and is solely the opinion of the writer. Nothing in this post should be considered investment advice. Before investing in anything, the reader is encouraged to do his or her own research and consult with a certified financial advisor, which John Tompkins makes no claim to be. John Tompkins and Toro Creek Investments accept no liability for financial losses or damages incurred by the reader because of this post