Well, since the various schools around the country are starting to wind down for the summer break, I thought it would be a good time to evaluate my performance on a few picks.
Here are my grades;
Gold A+
I have been championing gold personally and publicly for more than 8 years and I'm still an advocate. In fact more today than ever before. I'm up over 400 percent on this one.
Hold, Buy below $800
Silver A
While I am more bullish on silver than ever, it has taken more abuse than gold in recent pull backs. That having been said I think this grade will be A++ before all is said and done. I'm up 100% here.
Strong Buy/Accumulate. Buy below $16.50
Dow Chemicals (DOW) F-
Wow did I ever screw up on this pick, I caught the falling knife, blade first on this one. I would have been fine had I set my stop 50 cents lower. I was looking for support at $8.50 and it broke down below that, triggering the sale and then, it proceeded to rally to over 16 bucks a share, which is what I paid for it. Oops! That's proof that I make mistakes too. I took a fifty percent haircut on this one. This also demonstrates the importance of position sizing.
Position closed
Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) C-, D+
Down 10%
Hold
Van Eck Global Market Vectors Coal (KOL) A
Up %19
Accumulate
Market Vectors Agri-business (MOO) A
UP %27
Accumulate
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) A
Up %5 in 2 months
Accumulate
ProShares UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries (TBT) A
Up %22 in 5 months
Accumulate
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) C
Unchanged
Buy
Not too bad all things considered.
This is not my whole portfolio. This list, just represents what I have been writing about in this blog. I have many other positions in resource and junior resource companies that I have been accumulating for quite some time. Since I am in the accumulate mode in this sector, the radical pull back that wiped out so much value for so many people, allowed me to add to those positions at bargain basement prices. This is the speculative portion of my portfolio and I would not recommend these stocks as investment vehicles for any one, other than a seasoned trader.
The ones listed here, however, should continue to perform going forward, beware of a pull back this month, as I wrote about in my last post. This may or may not happen, if it does, I plan on using it as an opportunity to expand the positions in my "accumulate" rated stocks.
As for my percentages on gold and silver, they represent a much larger time span and they predate this blog. For instance silver; I acquired some shares or ounces at around 4 bucks, some at 5,6,10, 11, 17, 18, 14 and 12. The %100 gain is from the average cost of my holdings. Which works out to about 7 bucks an oz. The thing to be observed here is that you can afford to mistime the market if you are always buying on pullbacks in a cyclical bull market. That is how to "accumulate" a position. The trick is in knowing when it turns from a bull to a bear. We ain't there yet but it'll be dramatic right before it turns.
Good Luck and Godspeed
JT
Legal disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and is solely the opinion of the writer. Nothing in this post should be considered investment advice. Before investing in anything, the reader is encouraged to do his or her own research and consult with a certified financial advisor, which John Tompkins makes no claim to be. John Tompkins and Toro Creek Investments accept no liability for financial losses or damages incurred by the reader because of this post
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
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