Sell in May? Or right now?

The old adage of "Sell in May and go away" is well known and well played by many on and off The Street. The thought is that many traders simply take the summer off. Whether this is truly the case, is debatable. There are indicators that show a drop in volume during these summer months and trends tend towards the negative. The problem is, as always, determining how to play this. Is this simply a case of self-fulfilling prophesy? I think it probably is. Whatever the cause, I believe this May will be a good time to visit Hawaii.
Does this mean sell everything? absolutely not. But I am moving out of some of my more speculative holdings and shoring up my core positions. I think, at this time, being in cash is not the answer. If you are a short seller I think that this would be a great time to go short several areas. The financials are ripe for another sell off. This would probably cause other stronger sectors to sell off as well and may present another buying opportunity for some other sectors like commodities and energy. Look for disappointment in the usual summer oil rally. I do think oil will return to the $70 neighborhood but not for some time.
Furthermore, this move in precious metals may be another head fake but it doesn't matter I'm still extremely bullish on precious metals and am enjoying buying silver anywhere around 12 bucks. I can't believe that the markets are letting me accumulate at these prices.
I apologise for the short post today but things have really not changed much. The overall Macro picture is playing out exactly as expected and the trend is still in place. The only thing to concentrate on is your short term trades and those moves are typically difficult to predict, so protect yourself against next month and don't be surprised if a sell off happens before May. Traders don't like to "react" They want to be in position ahead of time. If you are reacting, you are probably loosing money and setting your self to lose more of same.

Good Luck and Godspeed

JT

Legal disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and is solely the opinion of the writer. Nothing in this post should be considered investment advice. Before investing in anything, the reader is encouraged to do his or her own research and consult with a certified financial advisor, which John Tompkins makes no claim to be. John Tompkins and Toro Creek Investments accept no liability for financial losses or damages incurred by the reader because of this post