Is Ted Butler right?

For those of you not familiar with Theodore Butler, he is a former precious metals futures player turned market analyst/crusader. It is his contention, that the precious metals markets are manipulated and the silver market, in particular, has been manipulated down to artificially low prices by large investment banks taking massive short positions. On the other side of the fence his critics claim that his conclusions are fantasy bordering on fanatical. Rather than going through his claims and his reasons, I will let you do the research yourself, Mr. Butler explains it far better than I. http://www.butlerresearch.com/archive_free.html
So is he right?
Yes and No
I tend to come down on the same side of the road as David Morgan of Silver-investor.com. To paraphrase his position, Mr. Morgan believes that the overall market price is not manipulated but it can be temporarily influenced.
My position is similar, mainly because I, as well as other analysts, have been successfully calling the market tops and bottoms through the use of various charting techniques as well as fundamental analysis. This is not to say that the people who may be manipulating aren't using those techniques as well. Of course they are.
Market forces will have their way. Manipulation can only work temporarily, but "temporary" can be a relative thing. It could be weeks, months or years.
Where I find Mr Butlers position to be very useful, is in taking his analysis from the COTs (Commitment of Traders report) data and use it as a confirmation of my technical analysis. If he flags an unusually large build up or spike on the short side at the same time I find overbought or topping indicators, it just strengthens my conviction to put on a trade.
The question remains as to which comes first. Are the manipulators causing the top or are they just taking maximum advantage of technical analysis.
From a moral standpoint I stand firmly behind Mr. Butlers concerns because these banks are not merely taking obscenely large short positions, his contention is, that they are colluding with other shorts to force the price to extremes. These are not the actions that can be allowed in a free market. So his crusading, as some have called it, is a just cause.
That the regulators at the CFTC are not responsive to this issue, is of course, to be expected. Having worked for the government for so long, it comes as no great surprise that there is incompetence in the government and this ineptness, actually lends credibility to Mr. Butlers arguments.
Illegal activity right under the nose of regulators?
Can anyone say Bernie Madoff?
Stick to your analysis and look to all sources for information. It is a mistake to dismiss Mr Butlers analysis as fantasy. Puzzle pieces often take on strange and unfamiliar shapes, but when correctly put together, can present a very pretty picture.

Good Luck and Godspeed

JT