Here's the scoop; There isn't one. At least nothing new.
As I pointed out last week both gold and silver were up against strong resistance and probably, could not break through. Look for a consolidation period here before they continue their upward trends. I am sticking with 850 support for gold and 12.50 for silver. These are my buy levels. If they break below these levels we could be in for another dance with 11 bucks and 750, but I view that as highly unlikely. With current world economic events, I see a much more likely chance that they will turn around even before those support levels and resume their climb.
In times like these, I would worry about the future for precious metals, if the Government was doing anything that would strengthen the dollar. They are not. In fact the inverse is true.
If I were writing a strategy to ruin the dollar, I would be advocating everything the government is doing, as well as what they are planning on doing.
This is not a criticism of President Obama, it is a criticism of all politicians, past and present from both sides of the isle. It would be charitable for me to say that they are just uneducated in monetary history. They know, but they are saying that "this time is different".
For almost a hundred years, politicians have refused to acknowledge history's precedents.
Rather than going through examples, suffice to say, that no country has ever successfully debased their currency.
Our founding fathers were mindful of past monetary catastrophes, that is why they spelled out, very carefully, what a dollar is. When we departed from that definition, we set ourselves on a path, the destination of which, is the destruction of the dollar. Can we turn from that path and save our currency?
Probably not. In fact the opposite is true, as I already stated, I couldn't come up with a better plan to destroy the once mighty Greenback, than what our leaders are doing. Not only are they continuing past practices, the are ramping up debt at a geometrical pace, with monetary supply following closely behind.
From psychology we know that true and lasting change will not come without a "significant emotional event", and we have yet to see that happen. It's beginning but, unfortunately, much more economic pain has to occur before that significance can be realised.
Back to the gold standard?
Yes, but I realize that in our current climate, that will not happen. The entire world will have to realize the necessity of a currency backed by silver and gold, and again, that will not happen without a world wide "significant emotional event".
Am I hoping for it to happen?
Absolutely not.
In fact, I would give away every ounce of silver and gold, as well as every dollar I have, to avoid it and return to our previous standard of living. But that would do no good. Instead I am trying to get friends and family to prepare for the hurricane ahead.
I am, by nature, an optimist. I know that sounds strange following my dire predictions, but I do think we will find a way out of this and my optimism is illustrated by the belief that I will emerge from the future events in much better shape than I am entering them, but not without being prepared.
As Doug Casey from Casey research is fond of saying "Rig for stormy weather!"
Good Luck and Godspeed
JT
Legal disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and is solely the opinion of the writer. Nothing in this post should be considered investment advice. Before investing in anything, the reader is encouraged to do his or her own research and consult with a certified financial advisor, which John Tompkins makes no claim to be. John Tompkins and Toro Creek Investments accept no liability for financial losses or damages incurred by the reader because of this post.
Monday, March 2, 2009
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